The rates of people dying from cancer are predicted to fall 17% in the UK by 2030, largely as a result of earlier diagnosis and improved treatments, according to new data from Cancer Research UK (CRUK).
For all cancers, adjusted for age, 170 people in every 100,000 died from the disease in 2010, but by 2030 it is predicted that this will fall to 142 in every 100,000. This is largely due to better survival rates, thanks to earlier diagnosis and improved treatments, but also reflects a reduction in smoking-related cancers leading to fewer deaths.
Ovarian cancer will see the biggest drop in death rates; these are expected to reduce by 42.6%, or from 9.1 women per 100,000 to 5.3 by 2030.
Breast cancer in women, bowel and prostate cancers will also have huge reductions in the number of people in every 100,000 dying – falling 28% for female breast cancer, 23% for bowel cancer and 16% for prostate cancer.
But for some cancers, death rates are set to rise – 22% for oral cancer, from 2.9 to 3.5 per 100,000 people, and 39% for liver cancer, from 4.2 to 5.9 per 100,000.
CRUK chief executive Dr Harpal Kumar said: “there are more exciting opportunities now to make a step-change than at any other time in history and we must grasp these. But to do so will require more investment.”
The new forecasts were released in the run-up to Stand Up To Cancer, an unprecedented partnership between CRUK and Channel 4, which will culminate in a live television fundraising entertainment extravaganza on October 19.
Meantime, other new figures show that 31% of cancers in people aged over 70, or around 38,300 a year in England, are diagnosed through emergency admission to hospital.
In all ages, 24% – or around 58,400 cases a year – are diagnosed through an emergency presentation, according to the research, which has been produced by the National Cancer Intelligence Network (NCIN) and is published in the British Journal of Cancer (BJC).
In people aged over 70, around 70% of cancers of the central nervous system, 55% of pancreatic cancers and 52% of liver cancers were first diagnosed after an emergency admission to hospital. Patients first coming to hospital as an emergency after having cancer diagnosed could have presented in a variety of ways, including coming into A&E due to their cancer symptoms, or arriving with a broken hip, for example, and then having their cancer detected, or being referred straight to A&E by their GP because their cancer symptoms are so severe, the researchers point out.
