2020 began with a bang in the Middle East, with the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. In the UK, however, it has been an altogether more sedate New Year, especially after the high drama of 2019, with its Brexit delays, constitutional crises and high-stakes general election. The most notable event for the pharma industry so far has been the update of the government’s life sciences strategy, which lays out plans for the sector’s future. That future starts in earnest on January 31, when Brexit will finally ‘get done’, but even then changes will come only slowly – at least at first.

Thanks to the decisive general election result in December, the government has finally been able to agree a transition deal with the EU that will keep the terms of trade relatively stable. The transition period, however, lasts only until the end of the year. Unless an extension is agreed before then (unlikely) or a free-trade agreement is rushed through (even more unlikely given the tight timeframe), the UK could yet see a no-deal Brexit. The Economist Intelligence Unit thinks the most likely outcome is that a limited trade deal will be agreed, but that it will still leave plenty of thorny questions unresolved.

Some of those unresolved questions could concern the life sciences and healthcare sectors, where regulation rather than tariffs is the primary concern. But the endless Brexit delays have already pre-empted many decisions. The slow divorce between the MHRA and the EMA means that ties between the two are already unravelling, for example, without their new relationship becoming clear. That has forced many pharmaceutical companies to hedge their bets, by treating the UK and EU as separate markets for regulatory purposes – just in case there is never an agreement on mutual recognition.

The same is happening with EU research programmes. Although the UK is still part of Horizon 2020, the uncertain future beyond that means that many UK researchers are already looking elsewhere for funding. The UK parliament has also voted against staying in the Erasmus programme that gives students the right to study across the EU. In the NHS, meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats claim that around 10,000 EU staff have voted with their feet, by going back home rather than waiting for Brexit to happen.

Not just Brexit

In 2020, though, the UK’s life sciences sector will have to look beyond Brexit, as a new EIU white paper makes clear. There are plenty of policy areas that have been ignored amid the mayhem, among them the NHS. The Conservative majority does give the government a freer hand to increase spending on healthcare, after nine years of constrained public finances. The promises made in the general election – and the subsequent Queen’s speech – may have been patchy or contradictory on detail, but they will still put politicians under pressure to deliver new hospitals and new staff. That may mean more fast-track routes to recruit nurses, doctors and other staff.