A new report looking at global medicine spending and usage trends has forecasted growth for the global medicine market through 2025, noting a ‘modest’ impact on pre-pandemic drivers of medicine use and spending from COVID-19.

The report, released by the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, has projected global spending on medicines to grow at 3-6% CAGR through 2025, reaching approximately $1.6 trillion by 2025, excluding spending on COVID-19 vaccines.

The increase in global medicine spending is expected to be lifted by stronger pharmerging market growth.

This will be offset by developed markets where slower growth is expected, following losses of exclusivity for original brands outweighing increased spending on newly launched products, according to the report.

In addition, the report expects total cumulative spending on COVID-19 vaccines through 2025 to reach $157bn, primarily driven by the initial wave of vaccinations expected to be completed by 2022.

The two leading global therapy areas, oncology and immunology, are both expected to grow 9-12% CAGR through 2025, bolstered by increases in new treatments and medicines use.

The impact of exclusivity losses is also expected to increase to $166bn over the next five years, mostly due to the availability of biosimilars with cumulative savings from biosimilars reaching an estimated $285bn.

“While the pandemic has been extremely disruptive, the pre-pandemic forces of medicine use and spending remain significant drivers of the outlook, and these forces have only been modestly impacted by the immediate effects of COVID-19,” said Murray Aitken, IQVIA senior vice president and executive director of the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science.

“The success of countries around the world in implementing a global vaccination programme — unprecedented in speed and scope — will be key to the outlook for all medicine use through 2025 and beyond,” he added.