The psoriasis market is set up to double over the next 10 years, boosted by biologics, according to a new report.

The study, published by market research analysts Decision Resources, claims continued uptake of marketed and emerging interleukin and tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors “and a twofold increase in the penetration of biologics in the moderate-to-severe population” will drive the psoriasis drug market. The latter’s value will double from $3.4 billion last year to $6.8 billion in 2019 in the USA, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan.

The findings argue that while Amgen/GlaxoSmithKline/Pfizer/Takeda's TNF-alpha inhibitor Enbrel (etanercept) maintained its market dominance in 2009, with sales of $1.3 billion, it will face stiff competition from Abbott/Eisai's Humira (adalimumab) and the interleukin inhibitors, notably Johnson & Johnson’s Stelara (ustekinumab) and Abbott's briakinumab.

These factors, combined with the entry of biosimilars, will reduce Enbrel's market share from more than one-third of sales in 2009 to less than one-quarter in 2019, DR claims. Analyst Iva Holder says that in 2011, Humira will overtake Enbrel as the new market leader with sales of $2.3 billion by 2019, “nearly double that of Enbrel’s in that year”.

Dr Holder adds that Stelara, which launched last year, will rank third in 2019, garnering approximately $970 million in sales. Briakinumab, “the most promising interleukin inhibitor, is poised to compete for first-line biologic use and its sales will exceed $800 million in 2019”.

The DR report also believes that “none of the oral agents in development, which include Isotechnika Pharma's voclosporin and Celgene's apremilast, appear to offer major advantages over marketed systemic therapies”. As such, “their potential launch is not expected to have a notable impact on the psoriasis drug market over the next decade”.