The days of the blockbuster-driven pharmaceutical behemoth could be numbered, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie.

According to the firm’s so-called “freshness index” for the top pharmaceutical companies in the world, which calculates the proportion of a company’s forecast sales in 2009 derived from products launched in the previous five years, many leading pharmaceutical companies will fail to develop and market products with significant levels of revenue contribution, in spite of significant investment in research and development.

A significant restructuring of the Industry is on its way, says Wood Mackenzie, citing the relatively poor growth forecasts and low freshness indices (occurs when the company is either launching no new products, or the revenues from new products are forecast to be low), of firms such as GlaxoSmithKline and Merck & Co, as well as Pfizer’s recent major cost-cutting initiatives [[06/04/05a]], and Novartis’ foray into generics [[21/02/05b]].